The impact of Celestia's TIA unlocking and the over-the-counter trading behind it
- Title: "TIA - an OTC story" Author: Taran Sabharwal, founder of the cryptocurrency over-the-counter trading platform STIX Compiled by: Zombiet
Overview of Net New Supply as of October 31, 2024
We use on chain data (via Celerium API) to accurately determine how unlocking dynamics may shape TIA's price trend in November. The above table shows the results, and we have concluded that a total of $92.3 million TIAs will enter circulation after unlocking, which will become the upper limit of overall spot selling pressure.
The $TIA has a 21 day staking period, and those who wish to unlock the trading TIA on October 31st have already released the staking. The total number of unsecured tokens, tokens in the 21 day staking queue, and approximately 24.1 million tokens that have not been counted is equal to 92.3 million TIAs.
This is equivalent to a maximum selling pressure of approximately $460 million. Equally interesting is that this accounts for less than 50% of the total cliff unlocking volume, which means the selling pressure is only half of what people expected.
Another interesting data is that the ratio of the (actual) increase in circulation supply to the current circulation supply is 41.8%.
The first wave of unlocked tokens was sold to OTC (over-the-counter) buyers who hedged on perpetual contracts, resulting in a surge in open interest over the past few months. We expect these large short positions to continue closing, partially offsetting the pressure of spot selling. This capital reset may be a bullish signal for spot buyers.
The assumption in our analysis is that buyers in OTC rounds have 11 million TIA cliff unlocks, which are included in non collateralized buckets (these tokens come from vault wallets and have not been marked on the browser). We have drawn a total of 292 attributed wallets, some of which were not fully drawn. We have included this gap in the non pledged buckets.
History of $TIA OTC on STIX
Undoubtedly, Celestia is one of the most actively traded assets off the exchange during this cycle, mainly because in the early stages of the cycle, it provides an early bullish opportunity for buyers who crave directional trading. Sellers were also incentivized by a large amount of unrealized profits and losses, and did not anticipate the upcoming bull market (Q3 2023).
In the first quarter of 2024, the bull market has matured and the $TIA has risen above $20. At this time, there is very little off exchange trading activity because sellers are unwilling to accept larger discounts (over 40%), and buyers do not want to bid above the upper limit of $8.5. We hardly saw any activity because the seller "feels" wealthy and wants to maintain risk exposure, even if there is an opportunity to achieve investment returns of 100 to 800 times.
When $TIA fell below $5, the situation changed, and this was also the time when the Celestia Foundation began raising $100 million through OTC at a price of $3. The buyer's attribution criteria are the same as those for private investors - unlocking 33% on October 31st (less than 2 months from the round) and linear unlocking for 12 months.
In the third and fourth quarters of 2024, $TIA's over-the-counter trading activity was very active, and sellers unloaded multiple positions. We traded a large quantity of tokens for the first wave of unlocking and the entire unlocking process. As for STIX, the total transaction volume of $TIA since July is approximately $60 million, which may indicate that the actual transaction volume through various liquidity channels is over $80 million (assuming STIX holds 75% of the OTC market share).
summary
Short positions will continue to close until unlocked, and funding rates may be reset to 0 or positive. Those who missed the deadline for releasing their pledge on October 9th may have already released their pledge in October, leading to a further increase in spot supply in November (ready to be sold). In any case, the supply shock is enormous and one of the most widely spread unlocking events of this cycle, coupled with suppressed off exchange trading discounts, may create significant market volatility for the coin.
Related articles: "Even without unlocking, you can still make a profit! Celestia seed round investors can recoup their investment every 3.5 days by staking rewards" "Celestia just announced the completion of a $100 million financing, and institutions are about to unlock it
(责任编辑:牌价)
-
电话那头的人表示现在想对她进行采访。...[详细]
-
不但让建站者得到了方便,做出来的网站更让用户喜欢、用户体验度也节节攀升。...[详细]
-
面对他们,俞敏洪登台寒暄后第一句话,先说感谢,第二句话是:我与你们感同身受。...[详细]
-
突破 262 美元?AAVE 的价格如何?短期内突破的可能性如何?
” 没有库存的商业模式,稳健的运营、资本的追捧,一切看起来都很完美…… 被外部环境和资本裹挟前进 2011年1月,乐淘发布了第三轮融资信息,联创策源、老虎...[详细]
-
假设获取一个用户的单价是3元,那么,广告成本就是3000元。...[详细]
-
这跟读书有一定的关系,但更多是与你抓取信息的能力有关系。...[详细]
-
2006年,Youtube进入了日本市场。...[详细]
-
华宝新能(301327.SZ):回购完成 累计耗资5029.69万元回购84.66万股
数据是评价效果的客观标准,是辅助科学决策的重要手段,不会做数据分析的运营就是瞎子。...[详细]
-
3、如果不想调整页面位置,还应该对活动中的商品进行调整优化,比如AD-2位置这个活动,选择商品替换,将热卖销量好的商品替换进来。...[详细]
-
纽约市“比特币市长”埃里克·亚当斯透露计划推动“妖魔化”加密产业
图形化编程其实就像是儿童自行车后轱辘的两个侧轮,你要学会真正的编程,可能一两个月就要丢掉这些侧轮,结果这些平台能够把这个过渡期拉长到五年,这不是误人子弟嘛!大量的平台没有纵深的原因也很简单,用户来到平...[详细]